Goals

Goals#

Objectives#

  • Replicate the simplest case of the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25 bp move vs. no change at the next scheduled FOMC meeting, implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures (ZQ).

  • Teach how market-implied policy forecasts work: futures settlement rules, contract symbology, the day-weighted average identity, and the binary outcome model.

  • Demonstrate a clean, cost-guarded Databento pull orchestrated with doit.

Success Criteria#

  • doit builds everything from scratch: data pull, unit-tested forecast math, two executed notebooks, and the latest-forecast chart.

  • The computed probabilities agree with the published FedWatch numbers for the same meeting on the same day to within a few percentage points.

  • Notebooks run offline from the cached parquet; the only network step is the pull.